In 1998, the Global Scenario Group and the Tellus Institute developed six scenarios as to how the future can play out based on the social, economic, and environmental data available at the time. They updated their modeling using new data in 2010 in the scientific journal, Sustainability. Both reports are attached below. More recent data concerning the scenarios is on their project website: https://greattransition.org/explore/scenarios.
I. Take a looking at the scenarios, and think about the data that we have examined throughout this class on global social problems. Which of the six scenarios they present do you think that we are currently following? Describe the scenario and lay out the data that backs your argument.
II. Now let’s think about climate change for a moment. As we will discuss, much of our climate change problem is tied to our reliance on fossil fuels. Take a look at two reports evaluating our ability to move completely off fossil fuels.
The first report is the Solutions Project Roadmap. http://thesolutionsproject.org/why-clean-energy
The second is the National Renewable Energy Laboratory report: https://www.nrel.gov/docs/fy12osti/51946.pdf
Look at their suggestions for Kentucky (or a state in which you are interested). Describe the suggestions. Compare them. Are they in agreement? Which one would you prefer? Why?
III. How does the scenario you find in section I relate to the projected solutions of section II? What would need to change to improve the possibility of Kentucky (or your state of interest) being able to follow your preferred solution. (Strong hint: Take a look at Chapter 4 of this report by the Tellus Institute https://www.greattransition.org/documents/Great_Transition.pdf ) Would the changes be more technological, social psychological, or social structural? What evidence can you present to support your argument?
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